These are the areas scientists believe are most likely to want more durable guidelines to sluggish the unfold of coronavirus.
And Newcastle seems excessive on the listing.
The Covid Symptom Study app predicted the subsequent 10 areas that might face a Tier 3 lockdown primarily based on the most recent information, analysed in collaboration with Kings College London researchers.
Released earlier than Lancashire’s transfer to Tier 3 was introduced on Friday, the examine had Burnley as most in danger within the nation, The Mirror reports.
It was adopted by Manchester, Newcastle, Nottingham and Pendle, which can be in Lancashire.
There has been broadly reported controversy over Manchester’s potential entry into Tier 3, as native politicians name for extra monetary assist for staff pressured out of their jobs by the brand new guidelines.
And within the North East, leaders have been informed they’ve every week in Tier 2 to show that Covid-19 infections are falling, or the area will be pushed into the ‘very excessive’ alert stage.
Bury, in Greater Manchester, was sixth, whereas Hartlepool, Salford, Sheffield and Leeds rounded out the desk.
The examine highlights particular person areas that are most in danger, however may add to the controversy within the North East as to whether or not the seven native authorities of Newcastle, Northumberland, Gateshead, Sunderland, South Tyneside, North Tyneside and County Durham ought to all obtain the identical remedy underneath the Government system.
Local leaders have mentioned the quantity of journey for work and leisure between the seven areas means all of them want the identical measures.
Released on Friday, the examine’s figures show an estimate for the variety of UK Covid-19 instances and the way they’re distributed throughout the UK primarily based on info logged by app customers.
This week the North West overtook the North East and Yorkshire, with an estimated 7,313 new instances per day in contrast to 5,762. The South West (1,279) stays the bottom area, adopted by East of England (1,356) and South East (1,417).
Tim Spector, Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King’s College London, mentioned: “The information is not displaying the exponential will increase that we had been seeing a few weeks in the past, however is clearly displaying new instances persevering with to rise. The North West nonetheless has the most instances and the quickest acceleration of instances with doubling instances of round 10 days.
“Slowing this fast rise is a precedence. Scotland, Wales, London and the Midlands are slowly growing with a doubling time of 14-28 days and the South and East of England remaining comparatively flat with five-fold fewer instances than the worst hit areas.
“Our information is roughly 7-10 days forward of different sources that means that it acts like an early warning system, while we anticipate the info from the confirmed instances.
“Our new Tier Prediction mannequin highlights that 9 out of 10 are within the North of England, the place most of the instances at the moment are concentrated, not like the North which is accelerating, London has been displaying a gentle linear enhance, doubling each 21 (vary 14-28) days so it should be fascinating to see how the brand new Tier 2 restrictions affect the speed of recent instances within the subsequent two weeks.”