A Cold War Between Red and Blue America

Importantly, this sample prolonged to Sun Belt metropolitan areas that till not too long ago had remained resolutely Republican. The most blatant instance was Maricopa County, centered in Phoenix, which was the biggest county Trump carried in 2016. No Democratic presidential nominee has received Maricopa since Harry Truman in 1948, however Biden has a strong lead there. Likewise, whereas Biden misplaced Texas, he considerably improved on Clinton’s displaying within the largest city facilities. He received the counties centered in Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio by a mixed 900,000 votes (rising Clinton’s margin in the identical locations by almost half); carried large suburban counties round Houston and Austin; and sliced Trump’s 2016 benefit in Fort Worth and the 2 big suburban counties outdoors Dallas. Biden’s remaining probabilities in Georgia are primarily based on his monumental advance past Clinton within the big Atlanta suburbs of Cobb, Gwinnett, and DeKalb Counties. The largest exception to this sample of metro-area good points was a crushing one: Though Biden carried out properly in Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville, Florida, an exodus of Hispanic voters, particularly Cuban Americans, led to a catastrophic underperformance for him in Miami-Dade County, which keyed his surprisingly decisive loss within the state.

Yet the Democrats’ hopes that Biden would possibly considerably dent Trump’s maintain on blue-collar white voters, notably within the weathered midsize industrial communities throughout the Midwest, fizzled. At finest, Biden secured modest good points; at worst, none in any respect. The maps in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan to this point have largely replicated these from 2016, with a couple of splotches of blue in inhabitants facilities submerged in a sea of crimson. Biden did win the county centered in Scranton, Pennsylvania, itself. But Trump nonetheless carried closely white working-class counties similar to Lorain and Mahoning in Ohio, Macomb in Michigan, Dubuque and Marshall in Iowa, and Racine, Kenosha, Brown, Outagamie, and Winnebago in Wisconsin. On Monday, Biden visited Beaver County, Pennsylvania, which Trump carried by virtually 19 factors towards Clinton; Trump leads it at the moment by about two to 1 within the newest depend. On the identical day, Biden’s operating mate, Kamala Harris, barnstormed by means of Luzerne County, Pennsylvania, the place Trump additionally beat Clinton by virtually 19 factors; he leads there now by a bit extra. (Mail-in-ballot tallies would possibly cut back, however will not get rid of, Trump’s lead in these locations.) Nor did Biden make any considerable inroads within the closely white working-class counties round Tampa and Orlando that Trump dominated in 2016.

Biden wasn’t fully ineffective on this entrance: Exit polls in essential Rust Belt battlegrounds confirmed him notching modest however pivotal good points in Clinton’s displaying amongst white voters with no faculty diploma (although not bettering a lot amongst these voters on a nationwide foundation). The polls additionally confirmed Biden beating Trump amongst college-educated white voters in the important thing states that the Democrat might find yourself profitable, together with Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona (though exit polls recorded a fair cut up amongst these voters nationally, a disappointing consequence for Democrats if it is not revised). But Trump nonetheless carried a major majority of working-class white voters in each critically contested state, and the towering magnitude of his margin amongst them within the South represents a frightening hurdle for Democratic hopes in these states. And whereas the nationwide exit ballot confirmed Biden sustaining historically robust Democratic numbers amongst Black voters (87 p.c to 12 p.c) and Latinos (66 p.c to 32 p.c), subpar showings for Biden among the many latter group in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and particularly Miami-Dade in Florida proved deadly for his efforts in these states. (Stronger performances with Latinos in Arizona and (to a lesser extent) Nevada had been essential to Biden’s benefits there.)

Source: www.theatlantic.com


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